Would Hillary Win?

So Obama got through the second debate pretty unscathed; latest polls have demonstrated precious little progress for McCain. And Obama has handled himself OK, he didn't - and probably won't - reach the heights of the debating art that Bill Clinton managed but McCain just isn't cutting it.

 

But I'd be intrigued to see where we'd be now if Hillary Clinton had managed to get the candidacy. Firstly, of course, we'd need to know who the VP would have been - which is impossible - because it would have certainly had a effect, not least on who McCain picked - would we have ever heard of Palin?

 

Let's assume all would be the same, would Clinton have been more or less effective than Obama? It's true that McCain has been anything but assured in how he's handled the period since Obama's becoming the Dem pick. His negative campaigning has largely revolved around provably false information and his claims to be this or that have respectively recent incidents that prove the lie too. His truly terrible non-suspension that he still claims was a campaign suspension was pretty symptomatic of how poorly he's played the last couple of months. But the question remains, has Obama brought this out of him or would have messed up this much with Hillary?

 

Hillary's campaigning outfit was pretty impressive but was quite heavily negative in the same way McCain's is. Hers failed against Obama and it seems McCain's is too (not really surprising). But if they both were in a face off would it be a "negative-off" or would Clinton have gone the more aspirational route?

 

I'm afraid I'm not a journalist and don't have the time to dig into her senate voting record to establish which votes surrounding the current economic situation could have been used to beat her with.

 

One thing is for sure, her Iraq/war on terror attacks would have been blunted by her voting for the war whereas Obama has no such contradiction. Would she have seemed a more fitting Commander in Chief that McCain during a time of so much military activity? That would be a key thing for the voters to chew over.

 

Given that I've been unable to answer a lot of these questions I would nevertheless instinctively feel that, although Clinton may have sneaked over the line, I think this election would have resolved by a waifer thin majority whilst Obama, I believe, is going to knock McCain out of the park when compared to recent elections. But with Clinton, the possibility would still have been quite clear that McCain could also have pipped the New York Senator and the country would be potentially more divided than ever (especially with Palin as VP).

 

Your opinions?

McCain nailed on Healthcare

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - Fact Check: Are business groups critical of McCain’s health plan? « - Blogs from CNN.com

Well, this really looks like something Obama could capitalise on next debate. And when McCains appalling healthcare idea really becomes understood by voters, who the hell would wanna vote him in?

Fuller thoughts on Presidential and UK politics

I'll deal with the US first:

On analysing the polling patterns, it's looking more and more sewn up for Obama and the debates are going his way. The residual tactics of the GOP seem nasty, desperate and are old hat - I really think the public are sick of dumbed down discourse.

 

The VP debate had Palin looking like a cocky local station news anchor, winking in the "see you tomorrow at the same time" way and faking her folksiness to painful effect. I suspected she'd try this hideous flannelling tactic she used so effectively in local politics to this national forum and it failed as badly as I thought it would.

 

Sure, pundits can pundit on about "holding her own" and "beating expectations" but the US public are clearly horrified by this useless, misguided VP pick. She made statements such as "we need more oversight and regulation" but then next minute talk about government "getting out of the way" and so on. She seemed oblivious to the contradiction - but I don't think the US public is.

 

McCain has judged this whole campaign quite appallingly and certain key plays have gone very wrong - not least the "suspension" of the campaign. Palin sucks at least as hard as Quayle but McCain is nowhere near as strong as Bush Snr was. You combine that with the context in which the republican president is currently less popular than scabies and he's got a (surely) unassailable uphill battle.

 

Meanwhile, in the UK, Gordon Brown survived conference season and has just completed a reshuffle. Absurdly, for someone trying to show strength and new ideas he's brought PETER MANDLESON back into the cabinet. You read that upper case right. Frigging Mandleson - who is having a kidney stone removed, incidentally. Staggering is probably the best word.

 

So the Tories are resurgent if you believe the media, though I can't truly believe that there's any real swell of warm feelings towards them so much as they've had time to thin out previous Major/Thatcher staff and the bad memories aren't as severe.

 

It's a shame because Brown could have done really well - especially if he'd followed through on the "listening" promises he banged on about when he took over (remember those speeches?). Now, the country seems destined to be at the mercy of the most "expediency"-driven Tory party in history with some proper right-wingers in the mix that have not yet garnered attention.

 

The economy is tanking and I can't help but blame Labour and the US administration (corrupt beyond belief and prostrate at the altar of all powerful corporations) for the whole thing. Many were warning of this for about 5 years but nowt was done. Which is usually the way and, although i don't see armageddon hoving in to view, I do think it's going to be a very very rough ride for a good couple of years. But I'd rather be going through this in the UK than the (almost) safety-net free US. I really fear for the millions who are going to suffer hideously due to this exhibition of how dark, amoral and dangerous unfettered capitalism really is. I've always believed the system was this bad but it seems to be a revelation to many right-wingers over there.